Quick Summary:
SPY at top of pivot range with a somewhat negative candle on Friday. Current positions SPXU and X. Watching biotech as short setup, earnings breakouts and strong sectors for longs. Important discussion on adapting.
Video
http://youtu.be/8VrLWvogTp8I highly recommend that you watch the video, rather than just read the notes. I talk about strategies, entries and exits more in depth in the video, yet short enough that they are only 5-10 minutes long.
Indexes and Game Plan
After what looked like a strong continuation move off the 50 dma remount, SPY stalled at the end of the day putting in a bearish candle right at the level it pulled back the last two times it tested this pivot level. I went short 10 minutes into the close using inverse ETF SPXU, though SPY recovered slightly in the final 10 minutes.
If SPY closes below the 50 dma this week, we are back in the trading range we have been stuck in since mid-December.
**Those who do not adapt there strategies get killed in these types of choppy markets. We adapted going into the year, thus are off to a good start. If we stuck with our usual style we would have been chopped out of a number of trades. Don't let anybody fool you, there is no such thing as a fool proof system. What you need is a toolbox of setups and systems, and adjust them according to market conditions.
The game plan is to monitor SPY for continuation or rangebound action. We continue to watch earnings breakouts, strong focus list stocks and key sectors oil/energy/gold miners/metals and select retail. We also may look to short biotech.
We are in the midst of earnings season and will start to build an earnings breakout watch list, as we did last season.
Trades
I entered X long at $23.05. See discussion in video
At the end of the day entered SPXU long at (shorts SPY) at $37.65. Stop is under the day range around $36.40-.50.
2015 Trade Results: http://bit.ly/161Yl4w
Focus List
We start the weak with a wide net, though at the forefront are TWTR, BWLD, DIG, GTLS, LOCO, BIS.
Many of the setups we are watching for tomorrow are earnings breakouts. Non-earnings breakouts come from energy, steel and retail.
WLL,OAS,LULU,GOOGL,LOCO,HABT,HSIC,GTLS,CBT,SSI,NXST,WOR,OC (see video)
Q1 2015 Earnings Breakouts:
New Additions:TWTR, LNKD, CBM, MTSI, XLS (see video)GLUU,DATA,ORLY,BWLD,APPLE,CYN,INFN,RMD,QSII,X,AN,BSET(see video)
Sector Watch
IBB is weakening. We will monitor for more of a weak bounce for a short entry, unless character changes (more volume comes in on bounces). Inverse ETF BIS.
Oil/Energy/Industrial Metals/Chem pullback a bit.
Sectors of note: Energy, Emerging markets/Brazil/India, Biotech, Retail and Gold Miners all strong, with homebuilders leading.
Last Quarter Breakouts
This is the earnings breakout list from 2014 4th quarter. We continue to monitor.
TTWO, CALD, COUP ACHC,RFMD,ACCO,AMED,X,TQNT,AN,TRNX,MSG,RCPT,VDSI,BCOR,CATM,BWLD
Please read the Education Archive and posts 23 Laws of the Part Time Swing Trading the Market Speculator Way and How to Analyze Your Swing Trade Results It is important to know these setups and rules if you trade off the Report.New subscribers and trial members please leave me any feedback/comments in the comments, via email (singhjd1@aol.com) or twitter
(twitter.com/PaulJSingh)
