My bias going into the week is slightly “negative” if you can say that. As you can see we are getting very overbought and the market has entered a zone of resistance. the $spy 108-110 area has some pretty strong price congestion. Even though the price action has been quite strong the volume has been week (I discount that a tad due to a myriad of reasons). As i look at the market now the reward to risk ratio has changed dramatically. As you can see right now we have maybe 3 points in potential upside with 8 points of downside as we are range bound. My bias will change of course if we break through the moving averages as that will change the trend for me into an uptrend.
If move up higher through mid afternoon…I will start unloading some of my longs and move my cash position to greater than 50% maybe even 75%. Till we pull back to $spy 104-105 area or break above the major moving averages I will just day trade and scalp instead of adding major swing trades.
Beware of the afternoon fade…if ur trading breakouts today they will have shat the shower if the market fades in the afternoon.
