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We easily took out the first level of overhead resistance at S&P 1090 this morning and then made a big move back to the 200 day moving average. In doing so, we partially filled last week’s gap, broke the shorterm downtrend channel we had been in last 2 weeks. The volume was a bit light today which would indicate a bearish signal. But due to the holiday weekend…volume is pretty much thrown out the window as most traders are already leaving or getting ready to.
The good thing i am hearing in the chatter is that most of the traders still are not trusting this. Most are saying bear market rally or relief bounce…low volume bounce etc. Usually when there is mistrust the rally may have legs in it for a few days as if everyone believed in the market would catch us leaning to far one way and snipe us. My gameplan has not changed at all. to me I'm not going full board into big swing positions till we recaputure the 50dma. If we break past the 200dma I will use that number as the bottom of my range and the 50dma as the top and just range trade this market. Sell rips. Buy dips.
I am not ready to short this market or add short positions
If we run up for a dday or 2 and get extreme overbought and then break back below the 200dma I will then go fullboard into the shorts.
The key to keep an eye on is the “news” if the market can digest a few pieces of bad news without tilting us on a downward spiral that will be my major signal that we are ready to rally.
