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Jan 28 2010 9:25PM 0 negative votes 0 positive votes  |  (permalink)
Ben_Le_Amazin
Posts: 2
Tags:
SYNM

So after the storm passes =/ how high do you guys think SYNM is worth? $3, $5, $10? Any thoughts would be appreciated!
Feb 2 2010 7:06AM 0 negative votes 0 positive votes  |  (permalink)
stockgod
Posts: 62
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Can't really say.  75 million gallons a year from one facility, when you do a price analysis and split with Tyson the price is over $10, however my understanding is they want to create multiple facilities - which means there will be secondaries along the way with strength..  So it will be dip after dip, with higher highs and higher lows... Just my opinion and guess.
 
 
Feb 27 2010 12:32PM 0 negative votes 1 positive votes  |  (permalink)
cpruette
Posts: 8
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Those are some great numbers on the most recent 10Q, and though I sold 1/4 of mine on the delay news, I will be buying vigorously on dips.  Basic proj. numbers on revs when at full capacity:
75m gals @ $3/gal = $225m revs (and jet fuel is more expensive still)  With a very high growth rate SYNM would easily get 4-6x revs as a valuation.  So $225 x 4 = $900m proj. mktcap. Current MktCap is $170m w/ shares at 2.30. @ $900m the shares would fetch $12.17 each.
This does not account for the fact that they will be plowing Earnings back into a second and third facility, but investors will not punish share price for reinvestment into a proven profit generating asset (2nd plant). 
Feb 28 2010 2:07PM 0 negative votes 1 positive votes  |  (permalink)
ChadBefus
Posts: 5
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Synm only take 50% of rev though, so shouldn't it be 112.5*4  instead of 250*4?
Feb 28 2010 6:11PM 0 negative votes 1 positive votes  |  (permalink)
cpruette
Posts: 8
Tags:
Quoting ChadBefus
Synm only take 50% of rev though, so shouldn't it be 112.5*4  instead of 250*4?

Reply:  Actually I overstated the jetfuel price I started with at 6.  After closer inspection this is too high (www.100ll.com); currently should be closer to $4.50 per gallon.  If you use $4.50, the final number would be $362.5m split with Tyson so /2 or about $180m at a 4 multiple = $720m proj mktcap w/shares fetching $9.74.  Still a 4x return; my apologies and thanks to those who error checked the analysis. ie. @chadBefus and @paragbhasin  
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