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SYNM
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| Quoting ChadBefus |
| Synm only take 50% of rev though, so shouldn't it be 112.5*4 instead of 250*4? |
Reply: Actually I overstated the jetfuel price I started with at 6. After closer inspection this is too high (www.100ll.com); currently should be closer to $4.50 per gallon. If you use $4.50, the final number would be $362.5m split with Tyson so /2 or about $180m at a 4 multiple = $720m proj mktcap w/shares fetching $9.74. Still a 4x return; my apologies and thanks to those who error checked the analysis. ie. @chadBefus and @paragbhasin
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SYNM
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Those are some great numbers on the most recent 10Q, and though I sold 1/4 of mine on the delay news, I will be buying vigorously on dips. Basic proj. numbers on revs when at full capacity:
75m gals @ $3/gal = $225m revs (and jet fuel is more expensive still) With a very high growth rate SYNM would easily get 4-6x revs as a valuation. So $225 x 4 = $900m proj. mktcap. Current MktCap is $170m w/ shares at 2.30. @ $900m the shares would fetch $12.17 each.
This does not account for the fact that they will be plowing Earnings back into a second and third facility, but investors will not punish share price for reinvestment into a proven profit generating asset (2nd plant).
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Need a new strategy
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Hey Meems, I been thinking about ur question a bit before trying to answer. The kneejerk is to say ur trading to much. But the more I consider the situation the more I wonder if it is a timeframe issue. Quick scalp trading like Kunal is emphasizing in the current environment is freaking hard. You need ALOT of prep work so you know what levels will trigger what trades on what stocks. And that assumes you have a decent feel for charting. Otherwise you are trying to pull these as Kunal announces them which can work but introduces a slippage issue and a commission issue versus the prices and costs that Kunal has. So this leads me to think that slowing down to multi-day swing trades might be a better core talent to develop first. Because whatever you do you have to pick a single "thing" you are going to perfect and repeat in order to start generating income asap. Leigh has numerous strategies for starter accounts to achieve this but they remain a mystery to me at the moment. Great swing trade today btw. G/L
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Volume Matters
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You will often hear swing and day traders in particular comment on volume, volume patterns, crappy volume and volume accumulation. In Kunal's video watch lists for 1/11/10 he mentions these repeatedly (in reference to KIM - vol accumulation; TCBK - crappy vol; etc.). So I wondered, Do traders use volume similarly? What is the volume an indication of? How does volume accumulate? And are there "patterns" in the volume that are different than just higher volume vs lower volume? WHen I traded commodity futures we often removed volume from the equation by charting using fixed-volume bars. In this way each bar on the chart represented 100 trades or 100 units if possible. The bar could complete in seconds after news was released or all night depending upon the activity. I have not seen a single stock trader mention these nor do they seem to use fixed vol charts that I can see. Why?
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Upcoming alternative energy plays -- Natural Gas, PHEV's, & everything in-between
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| Quoting afisheyonado | | This is a great article tweeted by VanadiumJoe earlier!!! http://www.savvyinvestor.com/alternative-energy-becoming-a-little-less-alternative/ |
Reply:Very detailed breakdown, and Joe's attention to the miner AVARF makes sense; but I could help but think as he laid out the tightness in R.E. metals supply that maybe this is actually a deal breaker. So Gonsalves is a paid pumper of these names, and he has made the case so well that there isn't enough R.E. Metal resources to go around; so if he is right economies of scale will in fact be negative for the EV mkt. The cost will climb as units sold rise. And supply will run out well before we all have a EV replacement for our current vehicles. Just a thought, makes you wonder if synthetic deisels and liquids combustibles have more longer legs than this.
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$STSI What's going on?
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Per SEC filing: On December 7, 2009, Star Scientific, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), filed its Fifth Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware (as amended, the "Certificate of Incorporation"). The Certificate of Incorporation, formally approved by the Company's stockholders on December 4, 2009, increases the total number of shares of the Company's common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, that the Company is authorized to issue from 135,000,000 shares to 170,000,000 shares. The Certificate of Incorporation is attached hereto as Exhibit 3.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. More shares for a secondary? Prices are awefully low for that, maybe pumping to start shortly. Otherwise using shares to incentivize/retain talent? Must be getting impatient with the legals woes and lack of sales.
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Okay let's get this schedule ready...
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I've got a kid to drop off but could make it for the 8:30a NEP if that gives SG the bandwidth to listen/question LIWA @ 8. If you have a specific question for NEP let me know.
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